Contrary to conventional wisdom, New York’s 20th Congressional District is not as “blood red” and “heavily conservative” as most people would assume. Barack Obama narrowly defeated John McCain within the seat’s boundaries, winning solid margins in Columbia, Dutchess, and Essex Counties, as well as narrowly carrying Otsego, Saratoga, Warren, and Washington Counties.
| Obama (D) | McCain (R) | |
| Columbia | 17,556 (55.6%) | 13,337 (42.4%) |
| Delaware | 9,462 (46.4%) | 10,524 (51.6%) |
| Dutchess | 71,060 (53.7%) | 59,628 (45.1%) |
| Essex | 10,030 (55.9%) | 7,913 (42.6%) |
| Greene | 9,850 (44.1%) | 12,059 (54.0%) |
| Otsego | 13,570 (52.0%) | 12,026 (46.0%) |
| Rensselaer | 39,753 (53.7%) | 32,840 (32.8%) |
| Saratoga | 56,645 (50.9%) | 52,855 (47.5%) |
| Warren | 16,281 (50.5%) | 15,429 (47.9%) |
| Washington | 12,741 (49.5%) | 12,533 (48.7%) |
The district still contains a fairly hefty GOP registration advantage, with 196,118 (43%) of its voting populace enrolled as Republicans and only 125,486 (26%) enrolled as Democrats, with the remaining balance unaffiliated or in third parties. But even here the GOP edge is gradually eroding; when the 20th was first drawn in 2002, there were 195,525 Republicans (45%) and 104,028 (22%) Democrats, a net gain of 21,458 Democrats and 593 Republicans over the past seven years. Folks, Democratic growth in voter enrollment is outpacing the Republicans by a ratio of 36 to 1 within the 20th District! Demographically, this is not the same district that John Sweeney or Gerald B.H. Solomon once represented.
Looking at the statistics, why on earth should we want to forfeit a Democratic-trending swing district to the likes of right-wing Republicans like John Faso, Betty Little, or Steve Saland, who stand to vote against much of the agenda that many of the district’s voters backed so passionately only two months ago?
“Democratic growth in voter enrollment is outpacing the Republicans by a ratio of 36 to 1 within the 20th District!”
You could say that about many places in the United States, it is a tribute to the Obama campaign, which really kicked ass at registering voters.
But more to the point, Obama barely won a district in a state where he spent a lot of money and John McCain spent next to nothing. Using the presidential numbers are far from the reality of a low-turnout competitive special election we will be facing.
To stop any momentum Repubs might get from winning a seat back so early in the cycle.
Last I looked Gillibrand had the lowest Progressive Punch score of any of the Democtratic House members from NY. She already has a primary opponent (Carolyn McCarthy) based on her pro-gun stance and NRA support. That’s fine for this district but way bad statewide. Although the registration gap is only a little worse than some Long Island districts that regularly elect Democrats we have a very weak bench in this district.
Supposedly, Schumer was pushing Gillibrand.
The pick should have been either Maloney or Cuomo. If he wanted somebody else, maybe Suozzi. A Maffei or Massa needs at least a couple of terms in the House (and I’d want those seats safe). I’d like Nita Lowey as a placeholder or even Louise Slaughter if we were headed in that direction. If either were younger, she would be a terrific pick.